In my last post I previewed the Nordea Masters as a whole, with course details, key stats and trends and some event history. Here is a streamline version.
Course (Bro Hof Slott GC)
Key stats and trends
Links form – 3 of the 4 previous winners (Mikko Ilonen, Alex Noren and Lee Westwood) who have won at this course had already won European Tour events on Links courses.
Par 5 performance – All 4 winners at this course have finished the event double digits under par on the par-5s proving it is vital you play the long holes well here.
Driving Distance – Given the length of the course plus the five par-5’s it is definitely advantageous to be long off the tee. Richard S. Johnson did win here in 2010, but the other three winners can all hit a reasonably long ball of the tee.
With this in mind, here are my picks to fill your DraftKings line-ups.
Elite Picks ($10,000+):
Lee Westwood ($11,300) – I left him out of my betting preview as I took fellow former winner, Alex Noren at longer odds however I could not leave him out of fantasy.
The Englishman has won this event three times (once at this course) and is playing some very good golf once again, just in time for the Ryder Cup.
If he can get a win before the teams are announced there is a good chance he could get a pick if needs be from Captain, Darren Clarke and I would argue it is warranted.
Westwood is a veteran Tour player with 23 European Tour wins (T8 all-time) and has 42 professional wins in total. He won on the Asian Tour in April last year but he will be keen to return to the European Tour winners’ circle for the first time since April 2014.
Alex Noren ($10,600) – Alongside Westwood, Noren has to be one of the favourites this week and should be worth his high salary.
The Swede has won his home event twice already (once at this course) and in four starts here has finished 4-10-1-MC.
He only finished T42 last week but Wentworth was playing tough and he should be able to get up for an event and a course he loves.
High-end Picks ($8,000-$9,900):
Rikard Karlberg ($9,700) – I don’t like this high-end range that much this week, having said that there’s three players I will be siding with, Karlberg the first of them.
Leading up to his home event, the Swede has been in spectacular form. In his last 6 starts (most recent first) he has finished 2-10-21-8-25, so his game is in great shape.
In four starts at Bro Hof Slott he has missed three cuts, however last year when making the cut for the first time he finished an impressive 4th.
Now a winner on the European Tour, I feel he could well get over the line once again here, and add to the Open d’Italia he won last season.
Nicolas Colsaerts ($9,000) – Colsaerts is playing great golf once again and should he piece it together for 4 rounds this week, there is no reason why he can’t get his third European Tour victory and his first in over four years.
The Belgian has the length required off the tee and with finishes of 22-23-3-15 in his last four starts means he’s coming into the event in form.
He finished 11th at this course in 2010 and has not played it since, so given the improvements he has made as a player since then suggests he could easily go well.
At $9,000 he is a bit risky but I will definitely have him in a line-up given his suitability with the course and his current form.
Julian Quesne ($8,700) – Another Open d’Italia winner, Quesne is finding some form of late and with a 9th place finish here in 2013 I am confident he can go well again.
I say he has rounded into form, he has missed 2 of his last 5 cuts however he finished 4th last week at Wentworth and that was his 4th top-10 of the season.
The Frenchman struggled last season and whilst he has also had an up and down season this year, when he’s made the cut (7/13) he’s got in and around the top-10 (4 top-10s and a 13th placed finish) so I can see him going well here.
I am hoping he can build on that 4th placed finish last week and get in contention for his third European Tour Victory.
Mid-range Picks ($6,800-$7,900):
Felipe Aguilar ($7,600) – Aguilar looks a shoe-in to make the cut this week and also there is also the potential to post a top-10/20 finish.
In four starts at Bro Hof, Aguilar has finished 9-7-60-MC so after a slow start he clearly became comfortable with the track and with some solid current form behind him, he may well be ready to make run at a top-10 finish again.
In his last four starts he has finished 37-36-2-28, so whilst he has only finished in the top-10 once in that time, he looks to be playing well enough to do that again at a course he has done it at twice before.
Johan Carlsson ($7,100) – Carlsson has never played at this course nor has he ever won an event, but I do think he represents value at $7,100 this week.
Another home pick, this Swede has made 11/13 cuts this season and has posted 6 top-20’s in that time. 4 of those 6 top-20s came in consecutive events in January/February, but a 33rd place finish last week was good enough to put him back on my radar.
Distance off the tee won’t be a problem for Carlsson who averages over 300 yards this season on the European Tour (21st in Driving Distance) and I am hoping he will take advantage of the par-5s.
If he can recapture some of the form he found earlier in the year, I see no reason why he can’t contend in his home country and at $7,100 a top-20 finish would be good enough.
High-upside Picks ($6,700 and below):
Jens Dantorp ($6,600) – Although he missed the cut on all three of his starts on the European Tour at the start of the year, I still think he can put a good showing together here, especially given it is a home event.
He has played six times on the Challenge Tour since missing those cuts earlier in the year and has not finished worse than 38th.
He has four top-24 finishes, including three top-17s (7-15-17) in his last four starts and that is enough for me to give him a chance here.
In two starts at the course, Dantorp has finished 22nd and 54th so if he can finish around the top-20 again, he will make a perfect filler option at $6,600.
Estanislao Goya ($6,300) – Goya is a former winner on the European Tour and whilst that win came back in 2009, he still plays well at times and looks in good form so far this year.
In 6 starts on the European Tour, he has missed two cuts but when he has made the weekend he has not finished outside the top-39, with his T3 finish at the Mauritius Open the highlight of his season so far.
Goya played awfully at the Irish Open last time out, shooting 73-89 over the first two days, however I am hoping he can bounce back from that, at a course he has shown a liking for in the past.
At Bro Hof he has finished 50-30-10 so he is 3/3 for cuts made and also has two finishes inside the top-30.
Should he repeat either of those two performances, he will prove his worth at $6,300.
Edoardo Molinari ($6,100) – Molinari has made his last four cuts and has also played well here on two occasions finishing 3rd and 30th.
He did miss the cut in his most recent effort (2013) however he is slowly looking more solid over four rounds and his 65th placed finish could have been a lot better last week.
It is risky playing him, given he has only made 4/12 cuts this season but as aforementioned they did come on his last four starts so maybe he has found something in his game.
The Italian’s two European Tour wins both came in Scotland so he likes links tests and hopefully he can play well this week, given his current form.
This is based purely on his salary, should he have taken up more cap than $6,100 it would have been a much harder decision, but given how cheap he is he looks the perfect filler option to me.